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FXPRIMUS Weekly Market Outlook 30.07.18 #FXPRIMUSMarketAnalysis

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The US economy continued showing strong numbers last week with GDP hitting its highest growth since 2014, although, more sustained levels of stubornly slow inlfation are required despite a tigthening in the labor market. With S&P being under pressure not only by Facebook’s slowing user growth but also by Twitter’s matching 20% decline on slowing active users, the corporate earnings narrative will contiue influencing the markets. A number of major banking events is due this week though, which will dominate the FX space and influence the markets in a wider range as the US, the UK and Japan decide on interest rates. With the US monthly NFP report also scheduled in this will be a week full of opportunities. In more detail Monday 30th of July: The ECB and a number of investors patiently wait for Destatis to release the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices as it is the most effective indicator used by ECB in order to assess the overall consumer price stability within the Euro area, and hence inflation, which recently reached the 2% target. Out at 12 PM GMT. Tuesday 31st of July: Bank of Japan Policy meeting is in focus following a week full of speculations around asset purchasing and changes in rates. The European GDP and US Core PCE are to be watched closely as well as following the European CPI on Monday and Fed’s PCE last Friday investors may have a clearer message from the data. Kiwi also delivers it monthly Employment report late at night. Wednesday 01st of August: FOMC is likely to provide hints surrounding September’s hike despite this month’s rate is expected to remain unchanged. No matter what US President Trump says about the pace of hiking, Fed’s gradual path to changes seems immovable. The UK and US PMIs also take center stage on Wednesday, along with EIAs report on weekly Crude Oil stocks. Thursday 02nd of August: Bank of England to push hikes past emergency levels after 9 years as Brexit pressure weighs in with consumer spending tightening. BoE is the only bank expected to hike this week. BoJ will deliver the meeting minutes as well near day’s end, at 23:50 PM GMT. Friday 03rd of August: Analysts expect a wage growth of 0.3% month on month and US hiring marginally below its 3-month average, but still moderate. The focus must again be on the wage growth and stubborn inflation, rather than headline NFP numbers.
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